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Updated 24 min. ago
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
6 %
chance
Market brief
- Down 32.0 pp over the past week (−3.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 38% on Oct 27, 2026.
- Historically, 12% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% one day before the end resolved YES (113 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 21 hr. (Nov 3, 2026).
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Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
50 outcomes- None37 %
- IA11 %
- IA, KS6 %
- KS4 %
- All 73 %
- AK, IA2 %
- IA, KS, ME2 %
- AK, IA, KS2 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX2 %
- AK2 %
- ME2 %
- IA, ME2 %
- OH1 %
- IA, KS, OH1 %
- TX1 %
- IA, TX1 %
- IA, KS, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, TX1 %
- IA, OH1 %
- AK, KS1 %
- IA, KS, ME, OH, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX1 %
- IA, MI1 %
- IA, KS, MI1 %
- AK, IA, KS, OH1 %
- AK, IA, KS, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, OH, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX1 %
- IA, KS, OH, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME1 %
- KS, OH1 %
- IA, KS, ME, OH1 %
- MI1 %
- IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1 %
- AK, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH1 %
- KS, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI1 %
- IA, ME, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI, OH1 %
- AK, KS, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI, TX0 %
- AK, IA, OH0 %
- IA, ME, MI0 %
- AK, IA, KS, MI, OH0 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, OH0 %
- IA, KS, MI, TX0 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI0 %
Total volume
$2.5M
24h vol.
$421K
1w vol.
$2.5M
1m vol.
$2.5M
Liquidity
$814.2K
Bid / Ask
5¢ / 6¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
6¢
Start date
Oct 26, 2026
End date
Nov 3, 2026
ends in 21 hr.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 113 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% one day before resolution, 12.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.4%. With this many cases, the difference could still be chance.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
- Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades
Failed to load trades: Upstream request failed (410) for https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0x564959d4c61eeb7c568d6f8e4f5a0dcf3622434d4f264d418d9674102e5a7a88&limit=50&takerOnly=true
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The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.
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- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?25 %▼ −5.0%
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?26 %▼ −2.0%
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?81 %▲ +2.0%
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