← Dashboard · Politics
Updated 6 days ago
Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas?
0 %
chance
Market brief
- Last 26 trades: 1 buys, 25 sells; the largest was $67 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 2% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% one day before the end resolved YES (700 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 21 hr. (Nov 3, 2026).
◆ Your call
What's your number?
Pick your own probability before you read the AI — then see how it compares.
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
50 outcomes- None37 %
- IA11 %
- IA, KS6 %
- KS4 %
- All 73 %
- AK, IA2 %
- IA, KS, ME2 %
- AK, IA, KS2 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX2 %
- AK2 %
- ME2 %
- IA, ME2 %
- OH1 %
- IA, KS, OH1 %
- TX1 %
- IA, TX1 %
- IA, KS, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, TX1 %
- IA, OH1 %
- AK, KS1 %
- IA, KS, ME, OH, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX1 %
- IA, MI1 %
- IA, KS, MI1 %
- AK, IA, KS, OH1 %
- AK, IA, KS, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, OH, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX1 %
- IA, KS, OH, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME1 %
- KS, OH1 %
- IA, KS, ME, OH1 %
- MI1 %
- IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1 %
- AK, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH1 %
- KS, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI1 %
- IA, ME, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI, OH1 %
- AK, KS, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI, TX0 %
- AK, IA, OH0 %
- IA, ME, MI0 %
- AK, IA, KS, MI, OH0 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, OH0 %
- IA, KS, MI, TX0 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI0 %
Total volume
$188K
24h vol.
$81.9K
1w vol.
$188K
1m vol.
$188K
Liquidity
$1.2M
Bid / Ask
0¢ / 1¢
Spread 0¢
Last trade
0¢
Start date
Oct 26, 2026
End date
Nov 3, 2026
ends in 21 hr.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 700 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% one day before resolution, 1.9% resolved YES. Their average price was 0.8%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
No orders
Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (26)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 6 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 17 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 14 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 67 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 12 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 5 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 67 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 67 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 67 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 67 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 60 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 7 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 27 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 6 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 18 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 30 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 17 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 6 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 10 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 3¢ | 13 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 30 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 34 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 11 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 11 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 3 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 11 |
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House6 %▲ +0.0%
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?95 %▲ +0.0%
- Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0 %▲ +0.1%
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?25 %▼ −5.0%
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?26 %▼ −2.0%
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?81 %▲ +2.0%
Keep exploring
Moving today
Open markets with the biggest 24-hour moves on real volume.