Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) odds
Live implied probabilities across 128 outcomes · $31.4M traded · updated 17 hr. ago
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
None leads at 32 % · biggest 24h move: None +7.0 pp
#OutcomeChance24hVolume7d
- 1None32 %▲ +7.0%$3.2M
- 2IA9 %▼ −1.8%$1.1M
- 3IA, KS7 %▼ −5.0%$2.1M
- 4KS4 %▼ −0.7%$218.7K
- 5All 72 %▼ −1.3%$253.9K
- 6AK2 %▲ +0.7%$251.5K
- 7ME2 %▼ −0.2%$279.4K
- 8AK, IA1 %▲ +0.1%$283.6K
- 9AK, IA, KS1 %▲ +0.2%$229.9K
- 10IA, KS, ME1 %▲ +0.3%$218.4K
- 11OH1 %▼ −0.1%$341K
- 12AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX1 %▲ +0.2%$159.5K
Show all 128 outcomesShow fewer
- 13IA, KS, OH1 %▼ −0.1%$184K
- 14IA, TX1 %▲ +0.2%$195.8K
- 15IA, KS, TX1 %▼ −0.2%$145.2K
- 16AK, KS1 %▼ −0.1%$229.3K
- 17IA, ME1 %—$262.3K
- 18IA, OH1 %▼ −0.5%$342.5K
- 19TX1 %▲ +0.1%$235.1K
- 20MI1 %—$416.3K
- 21IA, KS, ME, OH, TX1 %▲ +0.1%$132.8K
- 22AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1 %▲ +0.1%$218.4K
- 23AK, IA, KS, OH1 %—$182.9K
- 24IA, KS, ME, TX1 %▲ +0.1%$166.9K
- 25KS, ME1 %▲ +0.1%$188.3K
- 26AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX1 %▲ +0.1%$162.4K
- 27AK, IA, KS, TX1 %▲ +0.1%$141.8K
- 28AK, IA, KS, ME, TX1 %▲ +0.1%$167.3K
- 29AK, IA, KS, OH, TX1 %▲ +0.1%$149.5K
- 30IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1 %▼ −0.1%$147.2K
- 31IA, KS, ME, OH1 %—$171.6K
- 32IA, KS, OH, TX1 %—$122.8K
- 33IA, KS, MI1 %—$666.2K
- 34KS, OH1 %▼ −0.1%$188.3K
- 35IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX1 %—$138K
- 36IA, KS, ME, MI, OH1 %▲ +0.1%$172.5K
- 37IA, KS, ME, MI, TX1 %▲ +0.2%$164.2K
- 38AK, KS, TX1 %—$205K
- 39KS, TX1 %▼ −0.2%$143.2K
- 40AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH1 %▼ −0.1%$181.9K
- 41IA, KS, MI, TX1 %▲ +0.1%$141.3K
- 42AK, IA, KS, ME, MI0 %—$187.3K
- 43AK, IA, KS, ME, OH0 %▼ −0.1%$187.7K
- 44AK, IA, KS, MI, OH0 %—$171.3K
- 45AK, IA, ME, MI, TX0 %▲ +0.3%$244.9K
- 46AK, IA, OH0 %—$187.1K
- 47IA, ME, MI0 %—$177.1K
- 48IA, ME, TX0 %▲ +0.1%$135.3K
- 49IA, MI0 %▼ −0.4%$279.6K
- 50AK, IA, KS, ME0 %—$183.2K
- 51AK, IA, KS, MI0 %—$178.5K
- 52AK, ME0 %▼ −0.1%$173.6K
- 53AK, IA, KS, MI, TX0 %▲ +0.1%$1.2M
- 54AK, IA, MI, OH, TX0 %▲ +0.2%$237.7K
- 55IA, KS, ME, MI0 %—$166.2K
- 56IA, KS, MI, OH0 %▼ −0.1%$194.4K
- 57AK, IA, ME0 %▼ −0.1%$268.3K
- 58AK, IA, MI0 %—$177.1K
- 59AK, IA, TX0 %▼ −0.1%$134.9K
- 60AK, KS, ME0 %—$192.6K
- 61IA, ME, OH0 %—$178.8K
- 62IA, MI, OH0 %—$192.4K
- 63IA, MI, TX0 %—$149K
- 64KS, ME, OH0 %—$173.7K
- 65KS, ME, TX0 %—$171.4K
- 66KS, MI0 %—$322.9K
- 67ME, MI0 %—$179.3K
- 68ME, TX0 %▲ +0.1%$170.2K
- 69AK, IA, OH, TX0 %▼ −0.1%$148.4K
- 70AK, KS, OH, TX0 %▲ +0.1%$232.6K
- 71AK, KS, OH0 %▲ +0.1%$187K
- 72AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX0 %—$143.8K
- 73AK, IA, ME, MI, OH0 %—$296.8K
- 74AK, IA, ME, OH, TX0 %—$129.4K
- 75AK, IA, ME, OH0 %—$175.3K
- 76AK, IA, ME, TX0 %—$124.9K
- 77IA, ME, OH, TX0 %—$142.9K
- 78IA, OH, TX0 %▼ −0.1%$113.1K
- 79KS, ME, MI0 %—$180.8K
- 80KS, OH, TX0 %—$120.8K
- 81AK, OH0 %—$168.8K
- 82AK, TX0 %—$204.7K
- 83ME, OH0 %▼ −0.1%$206.6K
- 84OH, TX0 %—$159.7K
- 85AK, MI0 %▼ −0.1%$193.5K
- 86AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX0 %—$191.3K
- 87AK, KS, ME, MI, OH0 %—$211.2K
- 88AK, KS, ME, MI, TX0 %—$173.1K
- 89AK, KS, ME, OH, TX0 %—$188.1K
- 90AK, KS, MI, OH, TX0 %—$189.6K
- 91AK, ME, MI, OH, TX0 %—$228.2K
- 92IA, ME, MI, OH, TX0 %—$116.3K
- 93KS, ME, MI, OH, TX0 %—$175.4K
- 94AK, IA, ME, MI0 %—$169K
- 95AK, IA, MI, OH0 %—$261.1K
- 96AK, IA, MI, TX0 %—$165.1K
- 97AK, KS, ME, MI0 %—$194.9K
- 98AK, KS, ME, OH0 %—$198.2K
- 99AK, KS, ME, TX0 %—$163.9K
- 100AK, KS, MI, OH0 %—$191.4K
- 101AK, KS, MI, TX0 %—$147.8K
- 102AK, ME, MI, OH0 %—$198.8K
- 103AK, ME, MI, TX0 %—$160.7K
- 104AK, ME, OH, TX0 %—$139.2K
- 105AK, MI, OH, TX0 %—$176.2K
- 106IA, ME, MI, OH0 %—$170.4K
- 107IA, ME, MI, TX0 %—$103K
- 108IA, MI, OH, TX0 %—$106.3K
- 109KS, ME, MI, OH0 %—$235.6K
- 110KS, ME, MI, TX0 %—$155.8K
- 111KS, ME, OH, TX0 %—$285.1K
- 112KS, MI, OH, TX0 %—$118.6K
- 113ME, MI, OH, TX0 %—$124.3K
- 114AK, KS, MI0 %—$188.1K
- 115AK, ME, MI0 %—$263.2K
- 116AK, ME, OH0 %—$218.7K
- 117AK, ME, TX0 %—$142.5K
- 118AK, MI, OH0 %—$217.8K
- 119AK, MI, TX0 %—$145.3K
- 120AK, OH, TX0 %—$136.5K
- 121KS, MI, OH0 %—$170K
- 122KS, MI, TX0 %—$122.8K
- 123ME, MI, OH0 %—$182.6K
- 124ME, MI, TX0 %—$198.3K
- 125ME, OH, TX0 %—$141.2K
- 126MI, OH, TX0 %—$175K
- 127MI, OH0 %—$199.8K
- 128MI, TX0 %—$186K
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See the AI's numberFrequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite in Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)?
- None is the current favourite at 32 %, ahead of 127 other outcomes. That number is the market's implied probability right now, and it moves as people trade.
- What do these odds actually mean?
- Each percentage is the market's implied probability — the price of a contract that pays out $1 if that outcome happens. An outcome trading at 30 % means the market thinks it happens roughly three times in ten. Across a field like this the percentages add up to about 100 %, because exactly one outcome can win.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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