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Updated 10 min. ago
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
11 %
chance
Market brief
- Historically, 12% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% one day before the end resolved YES (113 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 21 hr. (Nov 3, 2026).
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Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
50 outcomes- None37 %
- IA11 %
- IA, KS6 %
- KS4 %
- All 73 %
- AK, IA2 %
- IA, KS, ME2 %
- AK, IA, KS2 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX2 %
- AK2 %
- ME2 %
- IA, ME2 %
- OH1 %
- IA, KS, OH1 %
- TX1 %
- IA, TX1 %
- IA, KS, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, TX1 %
- IA, OH1 %
- AK, KS1 %
- IA, KS, ME, OH, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX1 %
- IA, MI1 %
- IA, KS, MI1 %
- AK, IA, KS, OH1 %
- AK, IA, KS, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, OH, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX1 %
- IA, KS, OH, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME1 %
- KS, OH1 %
- IA, KS, ME, OH1 %
- MI1 %
- IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1 %
- AK, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH1 %
- KS, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI1 %
- IA, ME, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI, OH1 %
- AK, KS, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI, TX0 %
- AK, IA, OH0 %
- IA, ME, MI0 %
- AK, IA, KS, MI, OH0 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, OH0 %
- IA, KS, MI, TX0 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI0 %
Total volume
$1.9M
24h vol.
$851.9K
1w vol.
$1.9M
1m vol.
$1.9M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Bid / Ask
10¢ / 11¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
11¢
Start date
Oct 26, 2026
End date
Nov 3, 2026
ends in 21 hr.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 113 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% one day before resolution, 12.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.4%. With this many cases, the difference could still be chance.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
- Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades
Failed to load trades: Upstream request failed (410) for https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0xd116777a710b6a7c336fe12cbf742fafb0d8ac508cf400446159973cec9aec29&limit=50&takerOnly=true
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House6 %▲ +0.0%
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?95 %▲ +0.0%
- Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0 %▲ +0.1%
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?25 %▼ −5.0%
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?26 %▼ −2.0%
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?81 %▲ +2.0%
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