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Updated 3 wk. ago
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by October 31, 2026?
69 %
chance
Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
25 outcomes- Kaitlan Collins88 %
- J.B. Pritzker72 %
- Tucker Carlson69 %
- Hakeem Jeffries56 %
- Elizabeth Warren55 %
- Hillary Clinton47 %
- Mark Carney44 %
- Chuck Schumer40 %
- Stephen Colbert18 %
- Friedrich Merz17 %
- Emmanuel Macron15 %
- Candace Owens14 %
- Ken Paxton14 %
- Zohran Mamdani14 %
- Mike Rogers8 %
- Dario Amodei7 %
- Benjamin Netanyahu6 %
- Pope Leo XIV6 %
- Masoud Pezeshkian5 %
- Andy Burnham4 %
- Kevin Warsh3 %
- Vladimir Putin3 %
- Elon Musk2 %
- J.D. Vance1 %
- Xi Jinping1 %
Total volume
$9K
24h vol.
$164.9
1w vol.
$926.863
1m vol.
$9K
Liquidity
$157.698
Bid / Ask
60¢ / 78¢
Spread 18¢
Last trade
40¢
Start date
Oct 1, 2026
End date
Oct 31, 2026
ends in 2 wk.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 1,762 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% seven days before resolution, 68.5% resolved YES. That is 4.6 points less often than their average price of 73.1% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.
This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 40¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (2)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 20 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
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