← Dashboard · Politics
Updated 2 wk. ago
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by October 31, 2026?
17 %
chance
Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
25 outcomes- Kaitlan Collins88 %
- J.B. Pritzker72 %
- Tucker Carlson69 %
- Hakeem Jeffries56 %
- Elizabeth Warren55 %
- Hillary Clinton47 %
- Mark Carney44 %
- Chuck Schumer40 %
- Stephen Colbert18 %
- Friedrich Merz17 %
- Emmanuel Macron15 %
- Candace Owens14 %
- Ken Paxton14 %
- Zohran Mamdani14 %
- Mike Rogers8 %
- Dario Amodei7 %
- Benjamin Netanyahu6 %
- Pope Leo XIV6 %
- Masoud Pezeshkian5 %
- Andy Burnham4 %
- Kevin Warsh3 %
- Vladimir Putin3 %
- Elon Musk2 %
- J.D. Vance1 %
- Xi Jinping1 %
Total volume
$3.2K
24h vol.
$24.99
1w vol.
$1.3K
1m vol.
$3.2K
Liquidity
$123.429
Bid / Ask
14¢ / 20¢
Spread 6¢
Last trade
9¢
Start date
Oct 1, 2026
End date
Oct 31, 2026
ends in 2 wk.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 153 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 20.3% resolved YES. Their average price was 21.3%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 11¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (10)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 301 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 41 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 20 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 20 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 20 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 40 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 20 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 100 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 20 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 20 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.