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Updated 3 wk. ago
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hillary Clinton by October 31, 2026?
47 %
chance
Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
25 outcomes- Kaitlan Collins88 %
- J.B. Pritzker72 %
- Tucker Carlson69 %
- Hakeem Jeffries56 %
- Elizabeth Warren55 %
- Hillary Clinton47 %
- Mark Carney44 %
- Chuck Schumer40 %
- Stephen Colbert18 %
- Friedrich Merz17 %
- Emmanuel Macron15 %
- Candace Owens14 %
- Ken Paxton14 %
- Zohran Mamdani14 %
- Mike Rogers8 %
- Dario Amodei7 %
- Benjamin Netanyahu6 %
- Pope Leo XIV6 %
- Masoud Pezeshkian5 %
- Andy Burnham4 %
- Kevin Warsh3 %
- Vladimir Putin3 %
- Elon Musk2 %
- J.D. Vance1 %
- Xi Jinping1 %
Total volume
$5.4K
24h vol.
$47.7
1w vol.
$677.222
1m vol.
$3.5K
Liquidity
$59.914
Bid / Ask
15¢ / 79¢
Spread 64¢
Last trade
27¢
Start date
Oct 1, 2026
End date
Oct 31, 2026
ends in 2 wk.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 8,884 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 48.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 49.0%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 45¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
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Recent trades (10)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 50¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 51¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 49¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 5 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 5 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 50¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 51¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 49¢ | 20 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
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◆ Kalshi comparison
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