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Updated 3 wk. ago

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mark Carney by October 31, 2026?

Politics

44 %

chance

▼ −12.5%1h▲ +7.5%24h▼ −11.5%1W

Yes 44¢No 56¢

Total volume

$3.1K

24h vol.

$63.11

1w vol.

$1.4K

1m vol.

$3.1K

Liquidity

$180.022

Bid / Ask

17¢ / 71¢

Spread 54¢

Last trade

37¢

Start date

Oct 1, 2026

End date

Oct 31, 2026

ends in 2 wk.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 8,884 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 48.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 49.0%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 46¢

Bids (buy)Size

50¢$25

26¢$5

3¢$23

2¢$253

1¢$420

Asks (sell)Size

96¢$9

97¢$21

98¢$13

99¢$74

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

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Recent trades (6)

Buys 67%Sells 33%

Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
Time	Side	Price	Size
3 wk. ago	Sell	74¢	20
3 wk. ago	Sell	26¢	20
3 wk. ago	Buy	50¢	20
3 wk. ago	Buy	50¢	20
3 wk. ago	Buy	26¢	20
3 wk. ago	Buy	74¢	20

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◆ Kalshi comparison

This market on Kalshi

The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.