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Updated 2 wk. ago

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by October 31, 2026?

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by October 31, 2026?

Politics
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3 %

chance

▼ −0.1%1h▲ +0.0%24h▼ −0.1%1W
Yes 3¢No 97¢

Total volume

$1.5K

24h vol.

$32.7

1w vol.

$68.62

1m vol.

$1.5K

Liquidity

$174.636

Bid / Ask

1¢ / 5¢

Spread 4¢

Last trade

2¢

Start date

Oct 1, 2026

End date

Oct 31, 2026

ends in 2 wk.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 436 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 3¢
Bids (buy)Size
4¢$70
3¢$9
2¢$100
1¢$86
Asks (sell)Size
7¢$20
10¢$21
14¢$39
25¢$20
26¢$1,000
92¢$7
93¢$68
94¢$300
95¢$563
96¢$2,500

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

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Recent trades (32)

Buys 67%Sells 33%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
3 wk. agoSell5¢20
3 wk. agoSell95¢20
3 wk. agoSell95¢20
3 wk. agoBuy95¢20
3 wk. agoSell94¢20
3 wk. agoBuy94¢20
3 wk. agoSell95¢261
3 wk. agoBuy95¢82
3 wk. agoBuy95¢20
3 wk. agoBuy95¢39
3 wk. agoSell5¢20
3 wk. agoBuy95¢100
3 wk. agoBuy8¢21
3 wk. agoBuy92¢1
3 wk. agoSell8¢20
3 wk. agoSell10¢20
3 wk. agoBuy10¢19
3 wk. agoBuy10¢1
3 wk. agoSell10¢20
3 wk. agoBuy10¢20
3 wk. agoBuy85¢261
3 wk. agoBuy15¢20
3 wk. agoBuy15¢20
3 wk. agoBuy15¢21
3 wk. agoBuy15¢20
3 wk. agoBuy15¢20
3 wk. agoBuy15¢20
3 wk. agoBuy15¢40
3 wk. agoBuy15¢20
3 wk. agoBuy15¢20
3 wk. agoBuy15¢40
3 wk. agoBuy15¢20

◆ Smart money

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Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

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◆ Kalshi comparison

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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.

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Related markets

The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.