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Updated 1 mo. ago

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2028?

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2028?

Politics
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77 %

chance

▲ +0.5%24h▲ +0.5%1W
Yes 77¢No 24¢

Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?

50 outcomes

Total volume

$6.5K

24h vol.

$30

1w vol.

$269.79

1m vol.

$3K

Liquidity

$13.9K

Bid / Ask

76¢ / 77¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

77¢

Start date

Aug 4, 2026

End date

Jan 1, 2028

ends in 1 yr.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 1,762 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% seven days before resolution, 68.5% resolved YES. That is 4.6 points less often than their average price of 73.1% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 2¢
Bids (buy)Size
61¢$20
60¢$92
54¢$50
52¢$20
42¢$100
37¢$28
36¢$123
26¢$10
16¢$50
14¢$30
Asks (sell)Size
63¢$20
64¢$40
69¢$137
70¢$77
78¢$46
79¢$100
82¢$20
83¢$85
85¢$20
87¢$20

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 70%Sells 30%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 mo. agoBuy61¢5
1 mo. agoSell61¢5
1 mo. agoBuy62¢18
1 mo. agoSell62¢6
1 mo. agoSell62¢12
1 mo. agoBuy52¢20
1 mo. agoBuy48¢20
1 mo. agoSell33¢8
1 mo. agoSell67¢8
1 mo. agoSell32¢7
1 mo. agoSell68¢7
1 mo. agoBuy30¢319
1 mo. agoBuy69¢80
1 mo. agoSell31¢50
1 mo. agoBuy70¢40
1 mo. agoBuy70¢6
1 mo. agoBuy70¢20
1 mo. agoBuy70¢40
1 mo. agoSell30¢83
1 mo. agoBuy22¢10
1 mo. agoSell22¢10
1 mo. agoBuy74¢20
1 mo. agoBuy22¢5
1 mo. agoSell73¢15
1 mo. agoBuy71¢197
1 mo. agoBuy29¢20
1 mo. agoBuy29¢93
1 mo. agoSell71¢18
1 mo. agoSell71¢45
1 mo. agoSell71¢21
1 mo. agoBuy29¢5
1 mo. agoBuy71¢5
1 mo. agoSell27¢5
1 mo. agoSell73¢5
1 mo. agoBuy30¢117
1 mo. agoSell30¢17
1 mo. agoSell30¢100
1 mo. agoBuy28¢171
1 mo. agoSell29¢100
1 mo. agoBuy72¢20
1 mo. agoBuy73¢12
1 mo. agoSell27¢18
1 mo. agoBuy73¢21
1 mo. agoBuy77¢20
1 mo. agoSell78¢2
1 mo. agoBuy23¢18
1 mo. agoSell24¢20
1 mo. agoBuy24¢20
1 mo. agoSell23¢8
1 mo. agoBuy23¢8

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