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Updated 4 wk. ago
Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2028?
57 %
chance
Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?
50 outcomes- Andy Beshear89 %
- Ted Cruz83 %
- J.D. Vance82 %
- Pete Buttigieg79 %
- Gavin Newsom77 %
- Josh Shapiro66 %
- Ron DeSantis66 %
- Rahm Emanuel64 %
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez61 %
- Cory Booker59 %
- Mark Kelly57 %
- J.B. Pritzker56 %
- Jon Ossoff55 %
- Kamala Harris55 %
- Wes Moore52 %
- Andrew Yang51 %
- Brian Kemp49 %
- Phil Murphy48 %
- Rand Paul48 %
- Raphael Warnock48 %
- Marco Rubio45 %
- Josh Hawley36 %
- Katie Britt35 %
- Glenn Youngkin34 %
- Gretchen Whitmer32 %
- Steve Bannon32 %
- John Fetterman25 %
- Nikki Haley25 %
- Hunter Biden25 %
- Byron Donalds25 %
- Elise Stefanik24 %
- Don Lemon23 %
- Marjorie Taylor Greene22 %
- Gina Raimondo22 %
- Vivek Ramaswamy21 %
- Tulsi Gabbard20 %
- Stephen A. Smith19 %
- Mark Cuban19 %
- Kristi Noem18 %
- Jon Stewart18 %
- Tucker Carlson17 %
- Candace Owens17 %
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson16 %
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.16 %
- Mike Pence15 %
- Michelle Obama15 %
- Donald Trump Jr.14 %
- Kim Kardashian14 %
- Liz Cheney14 %
- Tom Brady14 %
Total volume
$541.077
24h vol.
$20
1w vol.
$40
1m vol.
$350
Liquidity
$21.3K
Bid / Ask
55¢ / 60¢
Spread 5¢
Last trade
62¢
Start date
Aug 4, 2026
End date
Jan 1, 2028
ends in 1 yr.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 8,884 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 48.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 49.0%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 4¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (25)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 62¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 62¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 60¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 40¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 62¢ | 3 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 62¢ | 3 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 39¢ | 310 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 61¢ | 50 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 61¢ | 240 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 63¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 67¢ | 22 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 31¢ | 8 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 66¢ | 14 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 66¢ | 6 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 66¢ | 6 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 66¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 66¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 34¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 66¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 35¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 35¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 44¢ | 60 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 20 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
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◆ Kalshi comparison
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