← Dashboard · Politics
Updated 4 days ago
Will Phil Murphy announce a Presidential run before 2028?
48 %
chance
Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?
50 outcomes- Andy Beshear89 %
- Ted Cruz83 %
- J.D. Vance82 %
- Pete Buttigieg79 %
- Gavin Newsom77 %
- Josh Shapiro66 %
- Ron DeSantis66 %
- Rahm Emanuel64 %
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez61 %
- Cory Booker59 %
- Mark Kelly57 %
- J.B. Pritzker56 %
- Jon Ossoff55 %
- Kamala Harris55 %
- Wes Moore52 %
- Andrew Yang51 %
- Brian Kemp49 %
- Phil Murphy48 %
- Rand Paul48 %
- Raphael Warnock48 %
- Marco Rubio45 %
- Josh Hawley36 %
- Katie Britt35 %
- Glenn Youngkin34 %
- Gretchen Whitmer32 %
- Steve Bannon32 %
- John Fetterman25 %
- Nikki Haley25 %
- Hunter Biden25 %
- Byron Donalds25 %
- Elise Stefanik24 %
- Don Lemon23 %
- Marjorie Taylor Greene22 %
- Gina Raimondo22 %
- Vivek Ramaswamy21 %
- Tulsi Gabbard20 %
- Stephen A. Smith19 %
- Mark Cuban19 %
- Kristi Noem18 %
- Jon Stewart18 %
- Tucker Carlson17 %
- Candace Owens17 %
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson16 %
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.16 %
- Mike Pence15 %
- Michelle Obama15 %
- Donald Trump Jr.14 %
- Kim Kardashian14 %
- Liz Cheney14 %
- Tom Brady14 %
Total volume
$1.4K
24h vol.
$40
1w vol.
$714.497
1m vol.
$714.497
Liquidity
$183.131
Bid / Ask
36¢ / 60¢
Spread 24¢
Last trade
56¢
Start date
Aug 4, 2026
End date
Dec 31, 2026
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 8,884 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 48.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 49.0%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (40)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 days ago | Buy | 24¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 24¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 24¢ | 10 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 24¢ | 10 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 22¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 78¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 24¢ | 18 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 24¢ | 18 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 24¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 24¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 22¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 78¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 24¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 24¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 20¢ | 22 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 80¢ | 22 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 80¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 80¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 76¢ | 100 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 24¢ | 100 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 76¢ | 29 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 24¢ | 29 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 24¢ | 21 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 24¢ | 21 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 77¢ | 21 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 77¢ | 21 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 76¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 24¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 89¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 352 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 121 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 100 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 21 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 50 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.