Skip to content

← Dashboard · Politics

Updated 4 wk. ago

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?

Other
Log in for watchlist

69 %

chance

▲ +1.0%1h▲ +0.0%24h▼ −2.5%1W
Yes 69¢No 31¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

15 outcomes

Total volume

$49K

24h vol.

$289.994

1w vol.

$2.8K

1m vol.

$44.8K

Liquidity

$148.1K

Bid / Ask

68¢ / 69¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

69¢

Start date

Sep 7, 2026

End date

Jan 1, 2028

ends in 1 yr.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 1,762 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% seven days before resolution, 68.5% resolved YES. That is 4.6 points less often than their average price of 73.1% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
70¢$2,177
69¢$1,719
68¢$2,615
67¢$1,929
66¢$1,780
64¢$200
57¢$500
54¢$10
53¢$1,259
52¢$3,375
Asks (sell)Size
71¢$286
72¢$3,852
73¢$7,657
74¢$5,871
75¢$12,767
82¢$50
84¢$20
87¢$250
92¢$6
93¢$20

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 99%Sells 1%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
4 wk. agoBuy30¢100
4 wk. agoBuy70¢52
4 wk. agoSell30¢5
4 wk. agoBuy70¢43
4 wk. agoBuy30¢10
4 wk. agoBuy70¢10
4 wk. agoBuy70¢50
4 wk. agoBuy30¢50
4 wk. agoBuy70¢97
4 wk. agoBuy30¢77
4 wk. agoBuy30¢20
4 wk. agoBuy70¢20
4 wk. agoBuy30¢20
1 mo. agoBuy31¢38
1 mo. agoBuy69¢17
1 mo. agoSell31¢21
1 mo. agoBuy30¢10
1 mo. agoBuy70¢10
1 mo. agoBuy72¢86
1 mo. agoBuy28¢86
1 mo. agoBuy71¢6
1 mo. agoBuy29¢6
1 mo. agoBuy30¢7
1 mo. agoBuy70¢7
1 mo. agoBuy71¢7
1 mo. agoBuy29¢7
1 mo. agoBuy72¢5
1 mo. agoBuy28¢0
1 mo. agoBuy28¢5
1 mo. agoBuy31¢31
1 mo. agoBuy69¢31
1 mo. agoBuy31¢8
1 mo. agoBuy69¢8
1 mo. agoBuy31¢3
1 mo. agoBuy69¢3
1 mo. agoBuy30¢7
1 mo. agoSell30¢7
1 mo. agoBuy31¢8
1 mo. agoBuy69¢8
1 mo. agoBuy73¢976
1 mo. agoBuy27¢976
1 mo. agoBuy30¢4
1 mo. agoSell30¢4
1 mo. agoBuy73¢56
1 mo. agoBuy27¢56
1 mo. agoBuy71¢2
1 mo. agoBuy27¢0
1 mo. agoBuy29¢2
1 mo. agoBuy71¢2
1 mo. agoBuy29¢2

◆ Smart money

Do the pros know something the price doesn't?

Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.

Smart money is a Pro+ feature

See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.

Upgrade plan

◆ Kalshi comparison

This market on Kalshi

The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.

Upgrade plan

Related markets

The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.