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Updated 2 mo. ago
Will Digger win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
4 %
chance
Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner
27 outcomes- The Odyssey47 %
- La Bola Negra19 %
- You Can See Everything16 %
- Dune: Part Three10 %
- Digger4 %
- Wild Horse Nine2 %
- Fjord1 %
- Project Hail Mary1 %
- The Invite1 %
- The Social Reckoning1 %
- The Debut1 %
- Elsinore0 %
- I Play Rocky0 %
- Artificial0 %
- Josephine0 %
- Obsession0 %
- Behemoth!0 %
- Tony0 %
- The Drama0 %
- The Adventures of Cliff Booth0 %
- Saturn Return0 %
- Fatherland0 %
- All of a Sudden0 %
- Avengers: Doomsday0 %
- Disclosure Day0 %
- Clarissa0 %
- Michael0 %
Total volume
$25.9K
24h vol.
$1.6K
1w vol.
$6.5K
1m vol.
$16.8K
Liquidity
$19.3K
Bid / Ask
4¢ / 4¢
Spread 0¢
Last trade
4¢
Start date
Jul 28, 2026
End date
Mar 14, 2027
ends in 5 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 400 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.5% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (33)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 90¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 90¢ | 1 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 1 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 470 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 85¢ | 138 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 250 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 42 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 34 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 14 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 54 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 34 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 175 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 54 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 100 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 21 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 9¢ | 16 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 16 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 9¢ | 178 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 16 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 120 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 21 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 10 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Culture markets from other events.