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Updated 1 mo. ago

Will La Bola Negra win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

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19 %

chance

▲ +0.5%24h▼ −9.5%1W
Yes 19¢No 81¢

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner

27 outcomes
See all 27 outcomes

Total volume

$24.1K

24h vol.

$1.2K

1w vol.

$6.9K

1m vol.

$18K

Liquidity

$9.5K

Bid / Ask

18¢ / 20¢

Spread 2¢

Last trade

19¢

Start date

Jul 28, 2026

End date

Mar 14, 2027

ends in 5 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 154 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 20.1% resolved YES. Their average price was 21.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 2¢
Bids (buy)Size
21¢$10
20¢$123
19¢$240
18¢$40
17¢$562
10¢$40
9¢$50
8¢$858
7¢$1,030
6¢$333
Asks (sell)Size
23¢$55
24¢$320
25¢$160
26¢$2,650
27¢$200
28¢$575
31¢$58
32¢$85
33¢$5
35¢$50

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 80%Sells 20%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 mo. agoBuy78¢12
1 mo. agoBuy22¢5
1 mo. agoSell78¢6
1 mo. agoSell76¢6
1 mo. agoBuy76¢6
1 mo. agoBuy24¢41
1 mo. agoBuy75¢6
1 mo. agoBuy75¢5
1 mo. agoSell24¢30
1 mo. agoBuy76¢30
1 mo. agoBuy24¢30
1 mo. agoSell23¢30
1 mo. agoSell77¢30
1 mo. agoSell21¢30
1 mo. agoBuy21¢30
1 mo. agoBuy22¢693
1 mo. agoBuy76¢22
1 mo. agoBuy76¢21
1 mo. agoBuy76¢45
1 mo. agoBuy76¢86
1 mo. agoBuy77¢34
1 mo. agoBuy77¢30
1 mo. agoBuy77¢39
1 mo. agoBuy77¢47
1 mo. agoBuy77¢20
1 mo. agoBuy78¢10
1 mo. agoBuy80¢240
1 mo. agoSell20¢9
1 mo. agoSell19¢50
1 mo. agoBuy81¢40
1 mo. agoSell18¢52
1 mo. agoSell82¢2
1 mo. agoSell82¢50
1 mo. agoSell17¢28
1 mo. agoBuy17¢28
1 mo. agoSell17¢28
1 mo. agoBuy17¢28
1 mo. agoSell17¢52
1 mo. agoBuy17¢52
1 mo. agoSell17¢9
1 mo. agoBuy17¢9
1 mo. agoBuy20¢10
1 mo. agoBuy80¢2
1 mo. agoBuy80¢8
1 mo. agoBuy19¢57
1 mo. agoBuy80¢6
1 mo. agoBuy80¢10
1 mo. agoSell19¢41
1 mo. agoBuy17¢59
1 mo. agoBuy82¢19

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A signal is present in this market.

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Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

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