Will Duke win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?

Market brief

• Down 5.0 pp over the past week (+1.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 35% on Oct 2, 2026.
• Last 44 trades: 33 buys, 11 sells; the largest was $35 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 30% of Polymarket Sports markets priced 15–35% seven days before the end resolved YES (3,836 cases). That is more often than their average price of 26% implied — prices in this range have run low.
• Scheduled to end in 5 mo. (Apr 20, 2027).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

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