Updated 2 wk. ago
Will Louisville win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?
3 %
chance
Market brief
- Down 4.5 pp over the past week (−1.1 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 10% on Oct 26, 2026.
- Last 10 trades: 3 buys, 7 sells; the largest was $241 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 2% of Polymarket Sports markets priced 0–5% seven days before the end resolved YES (361 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
- Scheduled to end in 5 mo. (Apr 20, 2027).
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
◆ Your call
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2027 Men's College Basketball National Champion
39 outcomes- Duke17 %
- Florida16 %
- UConn10 %
- Illinois9 %
- Michigan State8 %
- Georgia7 %
- Kansas5 %
- Arizona5 %
- Texas Tech5 %
- UCLA4 %
- Texas4 %
- Michigan4 %
- Virginia3 %
- Louisville3 %
- Arkansas3 %
- Gonzaga3 %
- Houston3 %
- Iowa State2 %
- Miami2 %
- Alabama2 %
- BYU2 %
- Vanderbilt1 %
- Nebraska1 %
- Kentucky1 %
- Missouri1 %
- North Carolina1 %
- St. John's1 %
- West Virginia1 %
- Ohio State1 %
- Oklahoma1 %
- Indiana1 %
- Texas A&M1 %
- USC1 %
- Tennessee1 %
- Purdue1 %
- Oregon1 %
- Saint Louis0 %
- Wisconsin0 %
- Villanova0 %
Understand this market
Background that stays useful after this market resolves.
Total volume
$11.1K
24h vol.
$732.04
Liquidity
$34.5K
End date
Apr 20, 2027
ends in 5 mo.
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates
1w vol.
$3.2K
1m vol.
$11K
Bid / Ask
3¢ / 4¢
Spread 0¢
Last trade
13¢
Start date
Aug 28, 2026
Orderbook
Spread: 5¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (10)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 1,855 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 70 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 269 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 7 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 36 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 4 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 77 |
Rules & resolution
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2027 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament (the national champion). If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2027 tournament (e.g., they are eliminated or fail to qualify), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2027 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no champion declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from the NCAA (https://www.ncaa.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Event:
- 2027 Men's College Basketball National Champion
- Resolution source:
- https://www.ncaa.com
- Note:
- Neg-risk market (multiple mutually exclusive outcomes).
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