Will Trump publicly insult someone on...? — odds by date
Cumulative probability across 13 deadlines · $24.5K traded · updated 10 hr. ago
Resolves Nov 1, 2026
Each row is a cumulative probability. The prices are currently not consistent enough across steps to break them into per-step chances, so only the cumulative view is shown.
ThresholdChance24hVolume7d
- October 3193 %▲ +3.0%$2.7K
- October 3096 %▲ +5.6%$580.531
- October 2995 %▼ −2.5%$759.697
- October 2897 %▲ +8.0%$840.706
- October 2795 %▲ +0.7%$2.2K
- October 2697 %▼ −0.5%$5.8K
- October 2597 %▲ +1.0%$2.8K
- October 2496 %▲ +0.3%$4.3K
- October 2396 %▲ +4.6%$1.5K
- October 2297 %▼ −0.1%$805.08
- October 2194 %▼ −4.1%$746.334
- October 2098 %▲ +1.5%$674.886
Show all 13 outcomesShow fewer
Frequently asked questions
- What do these cumulative odds mean?
- Each row is the market's implied chance of that outcome happening at or before that point. Because every step includes the ones before it, the numbers only ever go down as the bar gets harder to clear.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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