← Dashboard · Politics
Updated 1 mo. ago

Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
5 %
chance
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
46 outcomes- Jean-Luc Mélenchon94 %
- Marine Le Pen92 %
- Nathalie Arthaud87 %
- Fabien Roussel85 %
- Édouard Philippe85 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann84 %
- Éric Zemmour81 %
- David Lisnard78 %
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan69 %
- Bruno Retailleau58 %
- Dominique de Villepin31 %
- Marine Tondelier31 %
- François Hollande28 %
- Gabriel Attal27 %
- François Ruffin20 %
- Sarah Knafo18 %
- François Asselineau12 %
- Delphine Batho10 %
- Jordan Bardella8 %
- Xavier Bertrand7 %
- Élisabeth Borne7 %
- Juan Branco7 %
- Michel Barnier6 %
- Yaël Braun-Pivet6 %
- Jean-Michel Fauvergue6 %
- Olivier Faure6 %
- Teddy Riner6 %
- Bernard Cazeneuve6 %
- Jean Castex5 %
- Carole Delga5 %
- Sébastien Lecornu5 %
- François Bayrou5 %
- Matthieu Pigasse5 %
- Manuel Bompard5 %
- Karim Bouamrane5 %
- Philippe de Villiers5 %
- Michel-Edouard Leclerc5 %
- Mathilde Panot4 %
- Jérôme Guedj4 %
- Manuel Valls4 %
- Valérie Pécresse4 %
- Gérald Darmanin4 %
- Bally Bagayoko3 %
- Laurent Wauquiez3 %
- Ségolène Royal3 %
- Clémentine Autain3 %
Total volume
$6K
24h vol.
$439.996
1w vol.
$808.096
1m vol.
$3.3K
Liquidity
$17.4K
Bid / Ask
4¢ / 6¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
4¢
Start date
Apr 22, 2026
End date
Apr 18, 2027
ends in 6 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 222 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 10.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 0¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 49 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 94¢ | 9 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 68 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 11 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 37 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 95¢ | 11 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 9 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 41 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 60 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 263 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 73 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 92¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 92¢ | 130 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 91¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 9¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 91¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 91¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 544 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 100 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 64 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 200 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 20 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.