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Updated 1 mo. ago

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
94 %
chance
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
46 outcomes- Jean-Luc Mélenchon94 %
- Marine Le Pen92 %
- Nathalie Arthaud87 %
- Fabien Roussel85 %
- Édouard Philippe85 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann84 %
- Éric Zemmour81 %
- David Lisnard78 %
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan69 %
- Bruno Retailleau58 %
- Dominique de Villepin31 %
- Marine Tondelier31 %
- François Hollande28 %
- Gabriel Attal27 %
- François Ruffin20 %
- Sarah Knafo18 %
- François Asselineau12 %
- Delphine Batho10 %
- Jordan Bardella8 %
- Xavier Bertrand7 %
- Élisabeth Borne7 %
- Juan Branco7 %
- Michel Barnier6 %
- Yaël Braun-Pivet6 %
- Jean-Michel Fauvergue6 %
- Olivier Faure6 %
- Teddy Riner6 %
- Bernard Cazeneuve6 %
- Jean Castex5 %
- Carole Delga5 %
- Sébastien Lecornu5 %
- François Bayrou5 %
- Matthieu Pigasse5 %
- Manuel Bompard5 %
- Karim Bouamrane5 %
- Philippe de Villiers5 %
- Michel-Edouard Leclerc5 %
- Mathilde Panot4 %
- Jérôme Guedj4 %
- Manuel Valls4 %
- Valérie Pécresse4 %
- Gérald Darmanin4 %
- Bally Bagayoko3 %
- Laurent Wauquiez3 %
- Ségolène Royal3 %
- Clémentine Autain3 %
Total volume
$25.5K
24h vol.
$3.188
1w vol.
$1.6K
1m vol.
$16.3K
Liquidity
$18.9K
Bid / Ask
93¢ / 94¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
94¢
Start date
Apr 22, 2026
End date
Jul 1, 2027
ends in 8 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 515 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 85–95% seven days before resolution, 88.0% resolved YES. Their average price was 90.1%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 9 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 9 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 63 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 13 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 50 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 6 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 6 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 26 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 26 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 26 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 26 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 52 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 26 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 26 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 133 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 52 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 19 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 19 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 95¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 1 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 95¢ | 1 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 1 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 10 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 10 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 13 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 13 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 13 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 13 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 82 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 24 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 30 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 96¢ | 29 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 15 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 15 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 1 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
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◆ Kalshi comparison
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Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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