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Updated 1 mo. ago

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Politics
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94 %

chance

▼ −0.1%1h▲ +0.0%24h▼ −0.3%1W
Yes 94¢No 6¢

Total volume

$25.5K

24h vol.

$3.188

1w vol.

$1.6K

1m vol.

$16.3K

Liquidity

$18.9K

Bid / Ask

93¢ / 94¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

94¢

Start date

Apr 22, 2026

End date

Jul 1, 2027

ends in 8 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 515 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 85–95% seven days before resolution, 88.0% resolved YES. Their average price was 90.1%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
95¢$188
95¢$100
95¢$59
94¢$69
94¢$200
94¢$200
90¢$248
90¢$20
88¢$1,374
75¢$10
Asks (sell)Size
96¢$100
96¢$278
96¢$100
97¢$5
97¢$50
97¢$200
97¢$50
97¢$5
98¢$50
98¢$35

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 55%Sells 45%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 mo. agoSell4¢9
1 mo. agoBuy4¢9
1 mo. agoBuy96¢5
1 mo. agoBuy4¢5
1 mo. agoBuy5¢63
1 mo. agoSell5¢13
1 mo. agoBuy95¢50
1 mo. agoSell3¢6
1 mo. agoBuy3¢6
1 mo. agoSell3¢20
1 mo. agoBuy3¢20
1 mo. agoSell4¢20
1 mo. agoBuy4¢20
1 mo. agoSell4¢26
1 mo. agoBuy4¢26
1 mo. agoSell4¢26
1 mo. agoBuy4¢26
1 mo. agoSell4¢52
1 mo. agoBuy4¢26
1 mo. agoBuy4¢26
1 mo. agoSell4¢133
1 mo. agoBuy4¢52
1 mo. agoBuy4¢20
1 mo. agoBuy4¢20
1 mo. agoBuy4¢20
1 mo. agoBuy4¢1
1 mo. agoBuy5¢20
1 mo. agoSell4¢19
1 mo. agoBuy4¢19
1 mo. agoSell4¢10
1 mo. agoBuy4¢10
1 mo. agoSell95¢1
1 mo. agoBuy95¢1
2 mo. agoBuy6¢20
2 mo. agoSell6¢20
2 mo. agoSell95¢1
2 mo. agoSell5¢1
2 mo. agoBuy97¢10
2 mo. agoBuy3¢10
2 mo. agoSell3¢13
2 mo. agoBuy3¢13
2 mo. agoBuy97¢13
2 mo. agoBuy3¢13
2 mo. agoSell4¢82
2 mo. agoBuy4¢24
2 mo. agoBuy4¢30
2 mo. agoSell96¢29
2 mo. agoSell3¢15
2 mo. agoBuy3¢15
2 mo. agoBuy96¢1

◆ Smart money

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Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

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◆ Kalshi comparison

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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

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