Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31? odds
25 independent outcomes · $65.3K traded · updated 21 hr. ago
Resolves Oct 31, 2026
These outcomes are independent — they do not compete, and more than one can happen. That is why the percentages here add up to more than 100%.
ThresholdChance24hVolume7d
- Kaitlan Collins88 %▼ −2.1%$4.2K
- J.B. Pritzker61 %▼ −1.1%$505.681
- Hakeem Jeffries61 %▼ −3.0%$5K
- Elizabeth Warren60 %▼ −2.5%$1.6K
- Chuck Schumer55 %▲ +1.6%$5.6K
- Hillary Clinton47 %▼ −16.0%$5.4K
- Tucker Carlson45 %▼ −27.0%$9K
- Mark Carney41 %▼ −21.0%$3.1K
- Candace Owens21 %▲ +7.5%$7.6K
- Friedrich Merz20 %▲ +13.0%$3.2K
- Stephen Colbert18 %▲ +1.5%$18.278
- Emmanuel Macron15 %▲ +0.5%$953.837
Show all 25 outcomesShow fewer
- Ken Paxton14 %▼ −3.5%$4K
- Andy Burnham13 %—$74.995
- Mike Rogers8 %▼ −2.0%$569.273
- Dario Amodei7 %▼ −2.5%$31.091
- Benjamin Netanyahu6 %▼ −1.0%$1.5K
- Zohran Mamdani6 %▼ −14.5%$5.9K
- Masoud Pezeshkian5 %▼ −9.0%$214
- Pope Leo XIV4 %▲ +0.2%$2.5K
- J.D. Vance3 %▲ +0.2%$1.9K
- Kevin Warsh3 %▼ −0.5%$190.742
- Vladimir Putin3 %▼ −0.5%$1.4K
- Elon Musk2 %▲ +1.1%$441.616
- Xi Jinping1 %▼ −2.9%$548.476
Frequently asked questions
- Why do these add up to more than 100%?
- Because these outcomes are independent rather than competing. Several of them can happen at once, so their probabilities do not have to sum to 100%.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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