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Updated 2 hr. ago

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Politics
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9 %

chance

▲ +0.1%24h
Yes 9¢No 91¢

Presidential Election Winner 2028

50 outcomes
See all 50 outcomes

Total volume

$18.7M

24h vol.

$33K

1w vol.

$64K

1m vol.

$294.2K

Liquidity

$379.3K

Bid / Ask

9¢ / 9¢

Spread 0¢

Last trade

9¢

Start date

Jul 11, 2025

End date

Nov 8, 2028

ends in 2 yr.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 222 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 10.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 0¢
Bids (buy)Size
9¢$2,139
9¢$50
9¢$1,266
9¢$1,850
9¢$370
9¢$50
8¢$2,200
8¢$220
8¢$205
8¢$3,333
Asks (sell)Size
9¢$6,189
9¢$1,379
9¢$10,200
9¢$200
10¢$10,320
10¢$3,333
10¢$6,156
10¢$7,677
10¢$10,000
10¢$160

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 91%Sells 9%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
3 hr. agoBuy9¢12
3 hr. agoBuy91¢12
3 hr. agoSell91¢7
3 hr. agoBuy91¢7
3 hr. agoSell91¢18
3 hr. agoBuy91¢18
3 hr. agoBuy91¢100
3 hr. agoBuy9¢45
3 hr. agoBuy9¢5
3 hr. agoBuy9¢50
3 hr. agoBuy91¢1,060
3 hr. agoBuy9¢95
3 hr. agoSell91¢965
3 hr. agoBuy91¢2,089
3 hr. agoBuy9¢50
3 hr. agoBuy9¢50
3 hr. agoBuy9¢397
3 hr. agoBuy9¢299
3 hr. agoBuy9¢444
3 hr. agoBuy9¢216
3 hr. agoBuy9¢201
3 hr. agoBuy9¢44
3 hr. agoBuy9¢194
3 hr. agoBuy9¢50
3 hr. agoBuy9¢144
3 hr. agoBuy91¢397
3 hr. agoSell91¢397
3 hr. agoBuy91¢938
3 hr. agoBuy9¢888
3 hr. agoBuy9¢50
6 hr. agoSell91¢74
6 hr. agoBuy91¢74
6 hr. agoBuy9¢50
6 hr. agoBuy91¢50
6 hr. agoBuy9¢4,235
6 hr. agoBuy91¢3,837
6 hr. agoBuy91¢74
6 hr. agoSell9¢274
6 hr. agoBuy91¢50
9 hr. agoBuy9¢60
9 hr. agoBuy91¢60
9 hr. agoBuy9¢300
9 hr. agoBuy91¢32
9 hr. agoBuy91¢50
9 hr. agoBuy91¢218
9 hr. agoBuy9¢23
9 hr. agoBuy91¢23
15 hr. agoSell91¢0
15 hr. agoBuy91¢0
15 hr. agoSell9¢5

◆ Smart money

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Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

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◆ Kalshi comparison

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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

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Related markets

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