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Updated 4 wk. ago
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1 %
chance
Presidential Election Winner 2028
50 outcomes- JD Vance20 %
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13 %
- Jon Ossoff10 %
- Gavin Newsom9 %
- Marco Rubio8 %
- Kamala Harris4 %
- Josh Shapiro3 %
- Pete Buttigieg3 %
- Ron DeSantis2 %
- Andy Beshear2 %
- Tucker Carlson2 %
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson2 %
- James Talarico2 %
- Donald Trump1 %
- Mark Kelly1 %
- Raphael Warnock1 %
- Wes Moore1 %
- Ro Khanna1 %
- Thomas Massie1 %
- JB Pritzker1 %
- Rahm Emanuel1 %
- Ted Cruz1 %
- Ivanka Trump1 %
- Donald Trump Jr.1 %
- Jamie Dimon0 %
- Gretchen Whitmer0 %
- Tulsi Gabbard0 %
- Greg Abbott0 %
- Elon Musk0 %
- Michelle Obama0 %
- Glenn Youngkin0 %
- Tom Cotton0 %
- Alex Padilla0 %
- Tim Scott0 %
- Nikki Haley0 %
- Adam Schiff0 %
- Stephen Smith0 %
- Tim Walz0 %
- Eric Trump0 %
- Elissa Slotkin0 %
- Abigail Spanberger0 %
- Pete Hegseth0 %
- Zohran Mamdani0 %
- Kim Kardashian0 %
- Doug Burgum0 %
- LeBron James0 %
- Candace Owens0 %
- John N. Kennedy0 %
- Vivek Ramaswamy0 %
- Jalen Brunson0 %
Total volume
$10.7M
24h vol.
$2.2K
1w vol.
$10.6K
1m vol.
$225.2K
Liquidity
$738.7K
Bid / Ask
1¢ / 1¢
Spread 0¢
Last trade
1¢
Start date
Jul 11, 2025
End date
Nov 8, 2028
ends in 2 yr.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 436 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 0¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 99¢ | 73 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 73 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 685 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 616 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 99¢ | 69 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 99¢ | 6 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 99¢ | 6 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 99¢ | 5 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 5 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 99¢ | 5 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 99¢ | 5 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 99¢ | 15 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 15 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 410 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 405 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 5 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 99¢ | 5 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 5 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 99¢ | 5 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 5 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 77 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 67 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 10 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 70,000 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 18,392 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 1,000 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 100 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 1,000 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 99¢ | 5 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 400 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 10,000 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 10,000 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 10,000 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 18,088 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 99¢ | 5 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 1,000 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 10 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 50 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 99¢ | 50 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 3,661 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 1,912 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 10 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 10 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 10 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 1,475 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 99¢ | 33 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 100 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 10 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 100 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 56 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.