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Updated 4 days ago
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
7 %
chance
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
23 outcomes- Steve Witkoff37 %
- Jared Kushner34 %
- Abbas Araghchi30 %
- Nick Stewart25 %
- Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani24 %
- Kazem Gharibabadi24 %
- Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf22 %
- Majid Takht-Ravanchi21 %
- J.D. Vance17 %
- Rafael Grossi15 %
- Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi14 %
- Ishaq Dar14 %
- Masoud Pezeshkian14 %
- Marco Rubio9 %
- Donald Trump7 %
- Pete Hegseth5 %
- Ahmad Vahidi4 %
- Newt Gingrich4 %
- Esmail Qaani3 %
- Elon Musk3 %
- Mojtaba Khamenei2 %
- Mohammed bin Salman2 %
- Palmer Luckey2 %
Total volume
$79.3K
24h vol.
$25.02
1w vol.
$24.5K
1m vol.
$57.3K
Liquidity
$34.6K
Bid / Ask
7¢ / 7¢
Spread 0¢
Last trade
7¢
Start date
Aug 12, 2026
End date
Dec 31, 2026
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 222 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 10.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 3¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 days ago | Sell | 6¢ | 18 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 94¢ | 18 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 90¢ | 194 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 90¢ | 184 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 90¢ | 10 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 94¢ | 8 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 6¢ | 8 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 91¢ | 81 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 9¢ | 21 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 91¢ | 60 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 90¢ | 10 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 90¢ | 10 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 90¢ | 10 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 90¢ | 10 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 90¢ | 10 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 90¢ | 10 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 88¢ | 184 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 88¢ | 77 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 12¢ | 74 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 87¢ | 23 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 13¢ | 10 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 80¢ | 21 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 20¢ | 21 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 21¢ | 5 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 79¢ | 5 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 78¢ | 19 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 22¢ | 19 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 41¢ | 5 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 59¢ | 5 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 20¢ | 6,294 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 19¢ | 2,008 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 21¢ | 4,286 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 12¢ | 75 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 12¢ | 75 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 12¢ | 75 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 12¢ | 50 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 12¢ | 25 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 12¢ | 75 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 12¢ | 50 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 87¢ | 25 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 25¢ | 10 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 25¢ | 10 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 32¢ | 18 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 75¢ | 8 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 38¢ | 10 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 36¢ | 28 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 62¢ | 10 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 62¢ | 8 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 68¢ | 10 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 13¢ | 38 |
◆ Smart money
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◆ Kalshi comparison
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Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.