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Updated 2 wk. ago
Will Elon Musk attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
3 %
chance
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
23 outcomes- Steve Witkoff37 %
- Jared Kushner34 %
- Abbas Araghchi30 %
- Nick Stewart25 %
- Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani24 %
- Kazem Gharibabadi24 %
- Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf22 %
- Majid Takht-Ravanchi21 %
- J.D. Vance17 %
- Rafael Grossi15 %
- Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi14 %
- Ishaq Dar14 %
- Masoud Pezeshkian14 %
- Marco Rubio9 %
- Donald Trump7 %
- Pete Hegseth5 %
- Ahmad Vahidi4 %
- Newt Gingrich4 %
- Esmail Qaani3 %
- Elon Musk3 %
- Mojtaba Khamenei2 %
- Mohammed bin Salman2 %
- Palmer Luckey2 %
Total volume
$6.3K
24h vol.
$1.1K
1w vol.
$1.1K
1m vol.
$1.1K
Liquidity
$10.7K
Bid / Ask
2¢ / 4¢
Spread 3¢
Last trade
1¢
Start date
Oct 1, 2026
End date
Dec 31, 2026
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 436 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (39)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 100 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 80 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 94¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 10 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 94¢ | 10 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 45 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 94¢ | 45 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 10 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 85¢ | 10 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 90¢ | 21 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 21 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 85¢ | 645 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 55 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 189 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 147 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 50 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 16¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 16¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 16¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 16¢ | 25 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 86¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 84¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 16¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 74¢ | 170 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 26¢ | 55 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 26¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 26¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 26¢ | 75 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
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◆ Kalshi comparison
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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.