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Updated 30 min. ago
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
19 %
chance
Next French Presidential Election
42 outcomes- Marine Le Pen47 %
- Édouard Philippe19 %
- David Lisnard12 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon11 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann5 %
- François Hollande2 %
- Gabriel Attal1 %
- Sarah Knafo1 %
- Bruno Retailleau1 %
- Christine Lagarde1 %
- Éric Zemmour1 %
- Jordan Bardella1 %
- Dominique de Villepin1 %
- Sébastien Lecornu0 %
- Karim Bouamrane0 %
- François Asselineau0 %
- Xavier Bertrand0 %
- François Ruffin0 %
- Jean Castex0 %
- Ségolène Royal0 %
- Marine Tondelier0 %
- Clémentine Autain0 %
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan0 %
- Juan Branco0 %
- Yannick Jadot0 %
- Clémence Guetté0 %
- Mathilde Panot0 %
- Lucie Castets0 %
- Carole Delga0 %
- Manuel Bompard0 %
- François Bayrou0 %
- François Baroin0 %
- Gérald Darmanin0 %
- Valérie Pécresse0 %
- Fabien Roussel0 %
- Bernard Cazeneuve0 %
- Élisabeth Borne0 %
- Laurent Wauquiez0 %
- Michel Barnier0 %
- Yaël Braun-Pivet0 %
- Marion Maréchal0 %
- Olivier Faure0 %
Total volume
$2.4M
24h vol.
$78.1K
1w vol.
$235.8K
1m vol.
$744.4K
Liquidity
$354.2K
Bid / Ask
18¢ / 19¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
18¢
Start date
Nov 13, 2025
End date
Apr 19, 2027
ends in 6 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 153 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 20.3% resolved YES. Their average price was 21.3%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 1,500 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 1,500 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 18¢ | 1 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 18¢ | 1 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 18¢ | 13 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 18¢ | 13 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 7 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 7 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 6 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 6 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 9 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 9 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 18¢ | 72 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 18¢ | 72 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 28 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 28 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 18¢ | 500 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 18¢ | 215 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 82¢ | 200 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 82¢ | 49 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 82¢ | 10 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 82¢ | 26 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 500 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 82¢ | 74 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 100 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 81¢ | 326 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 150 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 81¢ | 4 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 146 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 19 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 80¢ | 19 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 81¢ | 1 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 1 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 20 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 80¢ | 20 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 150 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 150 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 81¢ | 1 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 1 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 20 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 80¢ | 20 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 150 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 150 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 81¢ | 1 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 1 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 7 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 80¢ | 7 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 150 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 50 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 100 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.