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Updated 28 min. ago

Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
1 %
chance
Next French Presidential Election
42 outcomes- Marine Le Pen47 %
- Édouard Philippe19 %
- David Lisnard12 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon11 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann5 %
- François Hollande2 %
- Gabriel Attal1 %
- Sarah Knafo1 %
- Bruno Retailleau1 %
- Christine Lagarde1 %
- Éric Zemmour1 %
- Jordan Bardella1 %
- Dominique de Villepin1 %
- Sébastien Lecornu0 %
- Karim Bouamrane0 %
- François Asselineau0 %
- Xavier Bertrand0 %
- François Ruffin0 %
- Jean Castex0 %
- Ségolène Royal0 %
- Marine Tondelier0 %
- Clémentine Autain0 %
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan0 %
- Juan Branco0 %
- Yannick Jadot0 %
- Clémence Guetté0 %
- Mathilde Panot0 %
- Lucie Castets0 %
- Carole Delga0 %
- Manuel Bompard0 %
- François Bayrou0 %
- François Baroin0 %
- Gérald Darmanin0 %
- Valérie Pécresse0 %
- Fabien Roussel0 %
- Bernard Cazeneuve0 %
- Élisabeth Borne0 %
- Laurent Wauquiez0 %
- Michel Barnier0 %
- Yaël Braun-Pivet0 %
- Marion Maréchal0 %
- Olivier Faure0 %
Total volume
$3M
24h vol.
$33.9K
1w vol.
$247.7K
1m vol.
$710.2K
Liquidity
$363K
Bid / Ask
1¢ / 1¢
Spread 0¢
Last trade
1¢
Start date
Nov 13, 2025
End date
Apr 19, 2027
ends in 6 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 436 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 0¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 min. ago | Sell | 99¢ | 15 |
| 55 min. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 15 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 500 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 500 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 500 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 500 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 500 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 500 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 94 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 94 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 2,600 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 2,600 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 150 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 150 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 150 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 150 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 150 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 150 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 150 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 150 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 2,000 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 2,000 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 500 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 500 |
| 4 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 1,400 |
| 4 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 1,400 |
| 4 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 2,000 |
| 4 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 2,000 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 2,600 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 2,600 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 600 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 600 |
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 12,000 |
| 21 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 1,200 |
| 21 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 323 |
| 21 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 2,000 |
| 21 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 2,000 |
| 21 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 500 |
| 21 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 500 |
| 21 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 500 |
| 21 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 500 |
| 21 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 500 |
| 21 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 500 |
| 21 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 2,000 |
| 21 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 1,477 |
| 21 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 800 |
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 800 |
| 21 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 2,600 |
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 852 |
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 1,748 |
◆ Smart money
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Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
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Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
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