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Updated 4 wk. ago
Will "Fjord" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
39 %
chance
Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations
22 outcomes- The Odyssey97 %
- La Bola Negra94 %
- Wild Horse Nine91 %
- Dune: Part Three87 %
- The Debut82 %
- Project Hail Mary80 %
- You Can See Everything71 %
- I Play Rocky68 %
- The Invite57 %
- Fjord39 %
- All of a Sudden36 %
- Obsession34 %
- Elsinore31 %
- Behemoth!21 %
- Digger20 %
- The Adventures of Cliff Booth18 %
- Michael12 %
- Avengers: Doomsday12 %
- Disclosure Day8 %
- Fatherland4 %
- The Social Reckoning4 %
- The Drama3 %
Total volume
$4.1K
24h vol.
$135.069
1w vol.
$2.3K
1m vol.
$3.5K
Liquidity
$6K
Bid / Ask
38¢ / 40¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
40¢
Start date
May 27, 2026
End date
Jan 21, 2027
ends in 3 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 113 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 35.4% resolved YES. That is 10.0 points less often than their average price of 45.4% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 10¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 46¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 54¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 53¢ | 6 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 47¢ | 6 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 48¢ | 6 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 48¢ | 6 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 12 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 48¢ | 12 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 30 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 48¢ | 10 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 48¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 46¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 54¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 46¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 54¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 41¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 41¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 41¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 55¢ | 90 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 44¢ | 37 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 55¢ | 23 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 54¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 54¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 44¢ | 63 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 23 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 60¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 60¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 60¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 61¢ | 7 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 39¢ | 7 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 61¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 39¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 61¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 61¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 46¢ | 53 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 54¢ | 17 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 54¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 46¢ | 11 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 46¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 42¢ | 25 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 42¢ | 9 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 58¢ | 16 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 41¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 58¢ | 4 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 41¢ | 26 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 41¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 41¢ | 5 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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