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Updated 1 mo. ago
Will "La Bola Negra" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
94 %
chance
Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations
22 outcomes- The Odyssey97 %
- La Bola Negra94 %
- Wild Horse Nine91 %
- Dune: Part Three87 %
- The Debut82 %
- Project Hail Mary80 %
- You Can See Everything71 %
- I Play Rocky68 %
- The Invite57 %
- Fjord39 %
- All of a Sudden36 %
- Obsession34 %
- Elsinore31 %
- Behemoth!21 %
- Digger20 %
- The Adventures of Cliff Booth18 %
- Michael12 %
- Avengers: Doomsday12 %
- Disclosure Day8 %
- Fatherland4 %
- The Social Reckoning4 %
- The Drama3 %
Total volume
$5.1K
24h vol.
$24.99
1w vol.
$71.65
1m vol.
$2K
Liquidity
$7.6K
Bid / Ask
93¢ / 95¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
95¢
Start date
Aug 26, 2026
End date
Jan 21, 2027
ends in 3 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 515 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 85–95% seven days before resolution, 88.0% resolved YES. Their average price was 90.1%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 2¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 14¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 9 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 86¢ | 11 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 13 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 15¢ | 13 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 19 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 15¢ | 19 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 86¢ | 22 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 86¢ | 22 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 13 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 15¢ | 13 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 14¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 86¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 1,147 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 870 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 100 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 100 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 7 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 16¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 16¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 81¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 75¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 25¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 79¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 79¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 81¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 15¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 18¢ | 19 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 18¢ | 19 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 20¢ | 41 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 23 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 80¢ | 18 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 80¢ | 21 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 80¢ | 2 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 19 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 20¢ | 129 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 80¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 80¢ | 8 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
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◆ Kalshi comparison
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Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
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