Skip to content

← Dashboard · Culture

Updated 4 wk. ago

Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

Other
Log in for watchlist

8 %

chance

▼ −0.9%1h▲ +1.5%24h▲ +5.5%1W
Yes 8¢No 92¢

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

22 outcomes

Total volume

$7.3K

24h vol.

$4.1K

1w vol.

$5K

1m vol.

$5K

Liquidity

$7.5K

Bid / Ask

7¢ / 10¢

Spread 2¢

Last trade

9¢

Start date

May 27, 2026

End date

Jan 21, 2027

ends in 3 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 221 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 16.7% resolved YES. That is 7.1 points more often than their average price of 9.6% implied — prices in this range have tended to run low.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 78¢
Bids (buy)Size
2¢$76
2¢$300
1¢$250
0¢$305
0¢$15
Asks (sell)Size
80¢$107
80¢$100
81¢$81
85¢$72
100¢$15

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 70%Sells 30%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 mo. agoSell4¢2
1 mo. agoBuy4¢2
1 mo. agoBuy96¢105
1 mo. agoBuy4¢2
1 mo. agoBuy4¢44
1 mo. agoBuy5¢59
1 mo. agoBuy4¢10
1 mo. agoSell4¢10
1 mo. agoSell93¢173
1 mo. agoBuy93¢124
1 mo. agoBuy93¢49
1 mo. agoSell3¢20
1 mo. agoBuy3¢20
1 mo. agoSell4¢1
1 mo. agoBuy4¢1
1 mo. agoSell95¢8
1 mo. agoSell5¢8
1 mo. agoSell94¢40
1 mo. agoBuy94¢28
1 mo. agoSell6¢12
1 mo. agoSell96¢7
1 mo. agoSell4¢7
1 mo. agoBuy4¢47
1 mo. agoBuy96¢7
1 mo. agoBuy96¢40
1 mo. agoSell6¢80
1 mo. agoBuy5¢19
1 mo. agoBuy5¢9
1 mo. agoBuy5¢10
1 mo. agoBuy7¢22
1 mo. agoBuy7¢20
2 mo. agoBuy91¢80
2 mo. agoBuy9¢80
2 mo. agoSell90¢0
2 mo. agoSell10¢0
2 mo. agoBuy94¢20
2 mo. agoBuy6¢20
2 mo. agoBuy91¢60
2 mo. agoBuy9¢20
2 mo. agoSell91¢20
2 mo. agoBuy9¢20
2 mo. agoSell90¢40
2 mo. agoSell10¢20
2 mo. agoBuy90¢20
2 mo. agoBuy90¢59
2 mo. agoBuy10¢18
2 mo. agoSell90¢20
2 mo. agoBuy10¢21
2 mo. agoBuy11¢40
2 mo. agoBuy89¢40

◆ Smart money

Do the pros know something the price doesn't?

Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.

Smart money is a Pro+ feature

See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.

Upgrade plan

◆ Kalshi comparison

This market on Kalshi

The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.

Upgrade plan

Related markets

The most-traded open Culture markets from other events.