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Updated 4 wk. ago
Will "Fatherland" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
4 %
chance
Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations
22 outcomes- The Odyssey97 %
- La Bola Negra94 %
- Wild Horse Nine91 %
- Dune: Part Three87 %
- The Debut82 %
- Project Hail Mary80 %
- You Can See Everything71 %
- I Play Rocky68 %
- The Invite57 %
- Fjord39 %
- All of a Sudden36 %
- Obsession34 %
- Elsinore31 %
- Behemoth!21 %
- Digger20 %
- The Adventures of Cliff Booth18 %
- Michael12 %
- Avengers: Doomsday12 %
- Disclosure Day8 %
- Fatherland4 %
- The Social Reckoning4 %
- The Drama3 %
Total volume
$1.4K
24h vol.
$140
1w vol.
$731.091
1m vol.
$1.2K
Liquidity
$105.156
Bid / Ask
1¢ / 8¢
Spread 7¢
Last trade
7¢
Start date
May 27, 2026
End date
Jan 21, 2027
ends in 3 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 400 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.5% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 18¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (30)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 77¢ | 6 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 24¢ | 6 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 0 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 0 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 0 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 0 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 19 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 47¢ | 0 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 19 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 68¢ | 9 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 32¢ | 9 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 68¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 32¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 100 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 100 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 79¢ | 6 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 1 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 21¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 81¢ | 6 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 1 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 80¢ | 5 |
| 4 mo. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 6 |
| 4 mo. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 6 |
| 4 mo. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 6 |
| 4 mo. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 6 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 22¢ | 10 |
| 4 mo. ago | Buy | 22¢ | 10 |
| 5 mo. ago | Buy | 51¢ | 10 |
| 5 mo. ago | Buy | 49¢ | 5 |
| 5 mo. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 5 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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