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Updated 4 wk. ago
Will "Michael" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
12 %
chance
Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations
22 outcomes- The Odyssey97 %
- La Bola Negra94 %
- Wild Horse Nine91 %
- Dune: Part Three87 %
- The Debut82 %
- Project Hail Mary80 %
- You Can See Everything71 %
- I Play Rocky68 %
- The Invite57 %
- Fjord39 %
- All of a Sudden36 %
- Obsession34 %
- Elsinore31 %
- Behemoth!21 %
- Digger20 %
- The Adventures of Cliff Booth18 %
- Michael12 %
- Avengers: Doomsday12 %
- Disclosure Day8 %
- Fatherland4 %
- The Social Reckoning4 %
- The Drama3 %
Total volume
$2.1K
24h vol.
$94.19
1w vol.
$113.19
1m vol.
$868.959
Liquidity
$789.011
Bid / Ask
10¢ / 14¢
Spread 4¢
Last trade
13¢
Start date
May 27, 2026
End date
Jan 21, 2027
ends in 3 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 221 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 16.7% resolved YES. That is 7.1 points more often than their average price of 9.6% implied — prices in this range have tended to run low.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 2¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 14¢ | 2 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 86¢ | 2 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 14¢ | 18 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 86¢ | 18 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 84¢ | 37 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 16¢ | 17 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 84¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 25 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 57 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 90¢ | 37 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 10¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 89¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 36 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 15 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 21 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 9¢ | 80 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 44 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 36 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 89¢ | 563 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 62 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 50 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 21 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 80 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 88¢ | 270 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 16 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 3 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 14 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 16 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 16 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 18¢ | 278 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 82¢ | 270 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 17¢ | 8 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 16¢ | 16 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 16¢ | 16 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 16¢ | 16 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 16¢ | 16 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 16¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 16¢ | 16 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 16¢ | 4 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 16¢ | 25 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 16¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 16¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 95 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
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