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Updated 4 wk. ago

Will "The Invite" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

Other

57 %

chance

▼ −2.0%24h▼ −2.5%1W

Yes 57¢No 43¢

Total volume

$4.8K

24h vol.

$55.651

1w vol.

$2.4K

1m vol.

$4.7K

Liquidity

$4.1K

Bid / Ask

57¢ / 58¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

58¢

Start date

Aug 26, 2026

End date

Jan 21, 2027

ends in 3 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 113 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 35.4% resolved YES. That is 10.0 points less often than their average price of 45.4% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 61¢

Bids (buy)Size

32¢$2,000

31¢$2,013

10¢$5

9¢$200

3¢$300

2¢$1,000

1¢$2,008

Asks (sell)Size

93¢$2,000

94¢$2,021

95¢$5

97¢$300

98¢$1,000

99¢$2,008

Snapshot from cache

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Recent trades (14)

Buys 100%Sells 0%

Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
Time	Side	Price	Size
1 mo. ago	Buy	31¢	5
1 mo. ago	Buy	69¢	5
1 mo. ago	Buy	31¢	8
1 mo. ago	Buy	69¢	8
2 mo. ago	Buy	18¢	6
2 mo. ago	Buy	82¢	6
2 mo. ago	Buy	18¢	6
2 mo. ago	Buy	82¢	6
2 mo. ago	Buy	16¢	6
2 mo. ago	Buy	84¢	6
2 mo. ago	Buy	13¢	8
2 mo. ago	Buy	87¢	8
2 mo. ago	Buy	94¢	1
2 mo. ago	Buy	6¢	1

◆ Smart money

Do the pros know something the price doesn't?

Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

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