Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? odds
23 independent outcomes · $1.1M traded · updated 2 days ago
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
These outcomes are independent — they do not compete, and more than one can happen. That is why the percentages here add up to more than 100%.
ThresholdChance24hVolume7d
- Steve Witkoff33 %▼ −2.0%$19.4K
- Jared Kushner32 %▼ −2.5%$15.5K
- Abbas Araghchi31 %▼ −5.0%$18.9K
- Nick Stewart25 %▼ −0.5%$42.6K
- Kazem Gharibabadi24 %—$42.4K
- Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani24 %▼ −1.0%$97.6K
- Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf22 %—$128.8K
- Majid Takht-Ravanchi21 %▼ −0.5%$40.4K
- J.D. Vance17 %▼ −1.0%$85.8K
- Rafael Grossi15 %▲ +1.5%$68.6K
- Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi14 %▼ −0.5%$71.6K
- Masoud Pezeshkian14 %▼ −1.0%$78.4K
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Frequently asked questions
- Why do these add up to more than 100%?
- Because these outcomes are independent rather than competing. Several of them can happen at once, so their probabilities do not have to sum to 100%.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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